One bank to rule them all: The ECB and European democracy

June 28, 2015

The European Central Bank has decided not to offer the Greek banking system any more Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). Given the scale of the capital flight from the Greek banking system such a move has inevitably forced the Greek government to impose capital controls (this prevents money from leaving the country) and the closure of […]

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Varoufakis on the Eurogroup meeting

June 28, 2015

On his personal blog Yannis Varoufakis has posted a brief comment on yesterdays Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers (below) and the full draft of the submission he made at the meeting.The refusal to extend the current program by one week until the referendum is held on the 5th of July opened the door to […]

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Varoufakis Eurogroup press conference

June 28, 2015

The English parts of yesterday’s press conference by the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufaki following the breakdown of talks and the announcement of the referendum. httpv://youtu.be/–zbMROUEIA  

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Odds and ends

June 26, 2015

Too busy to write much so here are some odds and ends. Here is the full text of the Greek proposals. Here is the Greek debt history in context. This flow chart explains what could happen next.

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The facts about Greek pensions

June 22, 2015

One of the main obstacles to a Greek deal is the demand by the Troika (the EU institutions, the ECB and the IMF) for further cuts to Greek pensions. The Syriza government in Athens has been refusing to cut pensions any more arguing that they have been cut enough, that a large number of the […]

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You couldn’t make this shit up

June 21, 2015

After last Thursday’s eurogroup meeting of Finance Ministers failed, again, to reach an agreement on Greece, lots of stories circulated in the press about what had happened in the meeting. Some of the stories, obviously based on off the record briefings from those who were trying to pressure Greece into more ‘reforms’ (EU jargon for […]

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“A bias towards privatisation of profits and socialisation of losses”

June 20, 2015

Paulo Nogueira Batista, Executive Director of the IMF for Brazil, and representative of ten other countries on the IMF board, has gone on record in a video interview describing what went on in the IMF at the time of the Greece bail out. He is clear and explicit about all the issues involved, the video […]

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Musing about the mechanics of Grexit

June 19, 2015

As the Greek debt crisis enters what may (or may not) be the a final stage prior to some sort of default it is useful to think through the mechanics of some of the things that might happen. The truth is that nobody knows what going to happen if there is a default on loan […]

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Greece’s Proposals to End the Crisis

June 18, 2015

After todays meeting of the Eurogroup, which consists of all the finance ministers of the eurozone, failed to reach an agreement on the Greek crisis there have been many leaked reports of what was and was not proposed by the Greek delegation. In response Yanis Varoufakis the Greek Finance Minister has published in full his […]

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If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there

June 16, 2015

In a recent article in the Independent Chuka Umunna, Labour’s spokesman on business, innovation and skills, had this to say: “In 2007, before the crisis hit, the UK government was running a deficit. By historical standards, it was small and uncontroversial – it averaged 1.3 per cent from 1997 to 2007, compared with 3.2 per […]

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“A strange dog’s breakfast” – the IMF, the Eurozone and the Greek crisis

June 12, 2015

Europe experienced twin crises, one in its economy and the other in policymaking. The IMF shares responsibility for both. Its systems for analysing and monitoring the finances of the eurozone did not anticipate the crisis, and its programmes for dealing with the crisis when it erupted made the situation worse. The inaccuracy of its forecasts, […]

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Varoufakis on what went wrong in the eurozone

June 10, 2015

Yannis Varoufakis explains in this video, with great clarity, the key structural problems in the eurozone and how it relates to the plight of Greece. The speech was made at a conference in Germany organised by the Hans Böckler Foundation on “The future of Greece in the EU”. It is clear that the Syriza strategy […]

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The Greek debt restructuring proposals

June 5, 2015

The current Greek debt repayment schedule is impossible to implement and it will never happen. That is basically the giant problem around which the entire dance of negotiations between the Greek government and the Troika has circled. The Syriza government position is actually pretty simple: trying to get Greece to repay its debts promptly by […]

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Looks like Tsipras is standing firm

June 4, 2015

This is the official statement from the website of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras after his meeting with the President of the European Commission, Mr. Jean-Claude Juncker. Note the comment about the Greek government rejecting the Troika demands to end Social Solidarity Benefit for low-income pensioners and increasing VAT by 10 points on electricity. I think […]

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Interest rates: the musical

June 4, 2015

Ever wondered what monetary policy would sound like if it was a piece of music? No? Well, here it is anyway: 70 years of US and UK interest rates ups and downs, with one month represented by one beat, and quarter-point changes given by semitones. You can see the year in the bottom right corner. […]

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Can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?

June 3, 2015

“The lesson of the 1930s was that orthodoxies are never abandoned by central banks and fiscal authorities voluntarily: when orthodoxies were in conflict with democracy, orthodoxies were overruled by elections and political decisions.” Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap? , Paul McCulley, and Zoltan Pozsar The negotiations between the […]

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Two important statements from the Syriza leadership

May 31, 2015

As the negotiations, and the crisis, surrounding Greeks debt burden inches toward some sort of crescendo both Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, and Yanis Varoufakis the Greek finance minister have both published important articles which state clearly the position of the Greek government on both its national debt crisis and the crisis facing the […]

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“I’m hearing music from another time” – the Spanish election results

May 27, 2015

“I’m hearing music from another time” The Clash – ‘Spanish Bombs’ The Spanish regional and local election results produced a political earthquake right across Spain with a variety of anti-austerity leftist parties, most of whom were only founded in the last couple of years, making dramatic gains. The political scene in Spain is fragmenting and […]

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A little Russian backstory

May 26, 2015

I recently read the excellent book by Serhii Plokhy “The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union” which is probably the most comprehensive and detailed account yet of the dramatic events in 1991 which led to the sudden dissolution of the Soviet Union. It offers some interesting perspective on the back story of Russian nationalism […]

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Greece, the IMF, the EU and the Dance of Death

May 22, 2015

The dance of death between the Greek government, the EU and the IMF continues. Yet another deadline for another deal looms. But the options are narrowing. The Troika plan for the Greek crisis has failed – completely. All the IMF growth projections have been wrong and the result of the Troika dictated austerity program has […]

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