Which countries are likely to face major debt and growth problems in the next few years?
In this lecture the economist Steve Keen, and proponent of the Minksy financial instability hypothesis, explores the shortcomings of how credit and debt is analysed in modern economics. In the final section of his lecture he uses the analytical tools he has developed to list the countries likely to suffer a major debt adjustment followed by a prolonged period of low growth.
The lecture is quite long and the middle section is pretty technical. The first section is a first rate critique of the failure of mainstream economics to understand credit and debt creation.
Its really worth watching from the 13.29 point in the video as Keen explains how to analyse debt and credit patterns in real economies in order to predict debt problems by using what he calls ‘the smoking gun of credit’.
At 21.50 in the video Keen begins to list those countries which will likely face a debt and growth crisis in the next decade, it includes China, Canada, Australia, France and South Korea.
