As the graph below shows approval of Trump after the violence at the Capitol still remains strong at around 40%. This article from the New York Times explores the depth of Trump’s support in the Republican Party.
Abandon Trump? Deep in the G.O.P. Ranks, the MAGA Mind-Set Prevails
I am sure there is a block of senior Republican Party leaders who are appalled by where Trump has led them, but there is clearly another block who will opportunistically follow anything popular that can deliver them votes, and yet another block that are the true believers in Trump politics. It’s not clear yet what weight inside the party these blocks have. It seems clear there will be some sort of inner party struggle following impeachment and in the build up to the mid-term elections, that struggle will determine the fate of the Republican Party and of American politics for years to come.
I am not sure how the censoring of Trump by big (and Democrat inclined) tech companies, and impeachment and other legal actions against Trump and his supporters, will play into that inner party struggle. It will definitely fuel the conspiracy theorists. There’s a lot at stake. The last election was actually pretty close and a second Trumpist Presidency even if led by someone other than Trump will be extraordinarily damaging. A lot hinges on a) how well the Democrats govern (the must look competent, deliver some sort of new direction to the US and it’s economy, and try to win over parts of the Trump block, no easy thing), b) how the Democrats handle the tangle of legal actions that will unfold against both Trump and his supporters. Above all the Democrats must not write off Trump supporters and voters, no more comments about ‘undesirables’, instead without pandering to base politics they have to manoeuvre to unpick the Trumpist coalition and win over Trump voters.
