Pro EU parties could face big losses in the next election

July 3, 2016

There is an interesting and detailed analysis at Buzzfeed on how the referendum votes map against parliamentary constituencies. Its worth a look with plenty of interactive maps to play with.

Although the referendum result was close nationally, Remain piled up many of its votes in a relatively small number of constituencies (London and Scotland being prime examples). As a result, the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system would produce an extremely skewed result. Based on the referendum results and assuming Brexit is a big issue in the next election pro Leave candidates could win in 421 seats across the UK, while Remain would win just 229.

If you break down Labour’s current seats, they work out at 150 Leave, 82 Remain – roughly a 65% to 35% split. The majority of seats the Labour Party will need to win in order to beat the Tories will also be in Leave-voting areas – often quite strongly Leave-leaning. This video shows how the areas that voted a majority for Leave map against current Labour seats.

Labour constituencies and vote Leave areas.

The Tories’ constituency breakdown is 258 Leave, 72 Remain – over 78% of their current seats are in favour of Leave. This a map of where Leave was a majority mapped against the Tory’s current parliamnetary seats. The Tory’s current and target seats are a bit split, but nowhere near as much – their heartlands (unsurprisingly) are mostly solid Leave territory.


Tory constituencies and vote Leave areas.

Obviously people vote on many issues in a general election, not just one. But it does suggest that a Labour party with a manifesto commitment to reversing Brexit might have a stuggle winning these vital seats. That’s especially true if a snap election is called in the next six months or so – before any likely economic effects of Brexit on jobs, housing and the cost of living have really kicked in.

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